Turn 2 of 10 · 8 to 14 April 2027
Australia lets the US use more of its northern bases, without announcing it.
It also spends two of its three , and the last by May 2027.
Report 011 · Rock and a Hard Place: Australia in a Taiwan Crisis
What you’re reading
An exercised scenario: one question run as a simulation, then reported with the record attached. It is not a forecast.
When China steps up its military pressure on Taiwan, can Australia back the US, keep its China trade and keep its fuel arriving?
In this simulation China puts military pressure on Taiwan over ten turns, from April 2027 to December 2028. Australia’s aims are scored as in Washington, and . All nine players move at the same time, and a choice in one area can cost Australia in another later.
At the start
Where the forces stand on 1 April 2027
Australia's forces and China's both start at 2 of 5 for readiness.
April 2027The US ask
Turn 3 of 10 · 15 to 28 April 2027
Two weeks later the approval becomes public.
Public support for the government falls from 55 to 49 of 100.
2028The Port of Darwin
Turn 10 of 10 · 30 June to 30 December 2028
Australia returns the Port of Darwin, leased to a Chinese company, to Australian control.
Chinese trade measures then cut Australia’s China trade by a tenth.
How it ended
One outcome
1
Australia’s own choices barely changed how the crisis ended.
We changed 260 Australian moves and ran each change 300 times. None shifted 10% or more of the runs to another ending. 26% of the 278 changes by China, the US and Taiwan did.
Endings
Four ways this world could have turned out
Each count is out of 300 from the turn where the paths split. A, B and C are how the crisis ended. D is what Australia kept.
Ending A · The ending this world reached
Grey-zone pressure goes on
This world reached it, and so did 203 of 300 re-runs from its first turn.
Who comes out ahead. No player gains much. Australia keeps both.
What has to happen. China declares no quarantine, and Taiwan does not take up China’s offer of talks.
- Turn 4China offers Australia trade relief, not a quarantine.
- Turn 7Taiwan leaves China’s offer of talks unanswered.
Ending B
Negotiated de-escalation
275 of 300 re-runs, if Taiwan accepts the talks in turn 7. As played, 37.
Who comes out ahead. Taiwan and China. Australia keeps both in 292 of 300 either way.
What has to happen. Taiwan accepts talks it had called a step toward subordination.
- Turn 7Taiwan accepts China's offer of talks.
Ending C
Frozen quarantine
76 of 300 re-runs, if China declares a quarantine in turn 4. As played, none.
Who comes out ahead. No player. Fuel cover falls below 10 days in 185 of 300, and exports fall to 60 per cent of normal or less in 146.
What has to happen. China uses the quarantine it readied, with a chance that it takes hold.
- Turn 4China declares a quarantine on Taiwan-bound shipping.
Ending D
The crisis ends much the same way, but Australia loses its China trade
147 of 300 re-runs end with alliance credit but without the China trade, if Foreign Affairs and Trade joins a joint condemnation of China in turn 6. As played, 8. How the crisis ends barely moves.
Who comes out ahead. The US, a little. China’s state buyer halts purchases of an Australian product line in 177 of 300 re-runs, against 86, which lowers the ceiling on Australia’s access to China’s market for good.
What has to happen. Australia joins the US and Japan in condemning China, and China takes trade measures against Australia.
- Turn 6Foreign Affairs and Trade joins a joint condemnation of China.
The main take-away
This scenario suggests Australia can keep its in Washington and its China trade. Its own choices barely change how the crisis ends. They decide its delayed costs: the unannounced approval of US access leaked, the budget ran out, and returning the Port of Darwin cost a tenth of the China trade. Australia lost alliance credit about twice as often as China trade.
The biggest limitation. Every chance in the simulation is an estimate, and China’s starting readiness for a quarantine changes the ending most.