Report 005 · Perpetual game · Cycle one · The record
Every claim, and the date it resolves
The Silence in the Doctrine makes nine claims about the eight weeks to 4 November 2026. On that day the Treasury publishes its refunding statement, the announcement of how much debt it will sell and why. This page lists each claim with the date we wrote it, the date it resolves, and how many games it came from. The game has been played twice so far, and each run has its own section below.
4 September 2026
Claims written
4 November 2026
Claims resolve
90
Games behind them
Two claims were settled before this page went up
This page went up on 18 September 2026. That is two days after the Fed’s September meeting. Two of the claims below are about that meeting: the September rate decision and the September dissents. The real world had settled both before you could read them here.
We saved the claims to the game’s ledger on 14 September 2026, before that meeting, and have not edited them since. We cannot prove that to you from this page. Give those two claims less weight than the other seven. Run two, further down, starts from the record of 17 September 2026, so those two are start values there and not claims.
Three of the nine claims follow from the Treasury plan we chose, not from the play. Inside one plan they come out the same way in every game, whatever the dice do. A tag on each claim says which. The other six changed from game to game in at least one plan.
No count on this page is a probability. It is a count over games we wrote, under a plan we chose for one player. How a perpetual game works.
How to read a row
- Plan 1. Keep its current wording.
- Plan 2. Sell fewer long-term bonds and cite structural demand.
- Plan 3. Sell fewer and admit it wants lower rates.
We played each plan 15 times with the full rules. Then every game ran a second time with one rule switched off: the rule that lets a role react to the reason another role gives, and not only to the money it moves. That second run is the control. Three plans, two rule sets and 15 games each make 90.
Run one, written 4 September 2026
The nine claims report 005 was written from, played from the record of 4 September 2026.
1. The Treasury sells fewer long-term bonds at the 4 November refunding.
Follows from the plan
| Plan | Full rules | Reason rule off |
|---|---|---|
| Plan 1 | 0 of 15 | 0 of 15 |
| Plan 2 | 15 of 15 | 15 of 15 |
| Plan 3 | 15 of 15 | 15 of 15 |
In the ledger: Treasury cuts long-end nominal coupon auction sizes at the 4 November quarterly refunding. Resolves from: Quarterly Refunding Statement, 2026-11-04, coupon auction size table.
2. The refunding statement keeps the words "at least the next several quarters".
Follows from the plan
| Plan | Full rules | Reason rule off |
|---|---|---|
| Plan 1 | 15 of 15 | 15 of 15 |
| Plan 2 | 0 of 15 | 0 of 15 |
| Plan 3 | 0 of 15 | 0 of 15 |
In the ledger: The refunding statement keeps the "at least the next several quarters" guidance. Resolves from: Quarterly Refunding Statement, 2026-11-04, guidance paragraph, verbatim.
3. The reason the Treasury gives for its decision.
Comes from the play
| Plan | Full rules | Reason rule off |
|---|---|---|
| Plan 1 | liquidity: 15 of 15 | liquidity: 15 of 15 |
| Plan 2 | structural demand: 13 of 15 · the yield level: 2 of 15 | structural demand: 13 of 15 · the yield level: 2 of 15 |
| Plan 3 | the yield level: 15 of 15 | the yield level: 15 of 15 |
In the ledger: The reason Treasury gives for the refunding decision. Resolves from: Quarterly Refunding Statement, 2026-11-04, and the Treasury press conference: which of structural demand, the yield level or liquidity support is named.
4. The Fed raises its rate at the September meeting.
Comes from the play
| Plan | Full rules | Reason rule off |
|---|---|---|
| Plan 1 | 7 of 15 | 7 of 15 |
| Plan 2 | 7 of 15 | 7 of 15 |
| Plan 3 | 7 of 15 | 7 of 15 |
In the ledger: The September FOMC raises the target range. Resolves from: FOMC statement, 2026-09-16, target range paragraph.
5. The Fed raises its rate at the October meeting.
Comes from the play
| Plan | Full rules | Reason rule off |
|---|---|---|
| Plan 1 | 6 of 15 | 6 of 15 |
| Plan 2 | 6 of 15 | 6 of 15 |
| Plan 3 | 6 of 15 | 6 of 15 |
In the ledger: The October FOMC raises the target range. Resolves from: FOMC statement, 2026-10-28, target range paragraph.
6. How many Fed officials vote against the majority in September.
Comes from the play
| Plan | Full rules | Reason rule off |
|---|---|---|
| Plan 1 | 2 dissents: 9 of 15 · 4 dissents: 6 of 15 | 2 dissents: 9 of 15 · 4 dissents: 6 of 15 |
| Plan 2 | 2 dissents: 9 of 15 · 4 dissents: 6 of 15 | 2 dissents: 9 of 15 · 4 dissents: 6 of 15 |
| Plan 3 | 2 dissents: 9 of 15 · 4 dissents: 6 of 15 | 2 dissents: 9 of 15 · 4 dissents: 6 of 15 |
In the ledger: Dissenting votes recorded at the September FOMC. Resolves from: FOMC statement, 2026-09-16, "Voting against this action were" list.
7. How many Fed officials vote against the majority in October.
Comes from the play
| Plan | Full rules | Reason rule off |
|---|---|---|
| Plan 1 | 0 dissents: 4 of 15 · 1 dissent: 3 of 15 · 3 dissents: 6 of 15 · 5 dissents: 2 of 15 | 0 dissents: 4 of 15 · 1 dissent: 3 of 15 · 3 dissents: 6 of 15 · 5 dissents: 2 of 15 |
| Plan 2 | 0 dissents: 4 of 15 · 1 dissent: 3 of 15 · 3 dissents: 6 of 15 · 5 dissents: 2 of 15 | 0 dissents: 4 of 15 · 1 dissent: 3 of 15 · 3 dissents: 6 of 15 · 5 dissents: 2 of 15 |
| Plan 3 | 0 dissents: 4 of 15 · 1 dissent: 3 of 15 · 3 dissents: 6 of 15 · 5 dissents: 2 of 15 | 0 dissents: 4 of 15 · 1 dissent: 3 of 15 · 3 dissents: 6 of 15 · 5 dissents: 2 of 15 |
In the ledger: Dissenting votes recorded at the October FOMC. Resolves from: FOMC statement, 2026-10-28, "Voting against this action were" list.
8. The Treasury draws on its cash account to buy back more of its own bonds.
Follows from the plan
| Plan | Full rules | Reason rule off |
|---|---|---|
| Plan 1 | 0 of 15 | 0 of 15 |
| Plan 2 | 0 of 15 | 0 of 15 |
| Plan 3 | 15 of 15 | 15 of 15 |
In the ledger: Treasury draws the General Account down to fund operations above the floor. Resolves from: Daily Treasury Statement, operating cash balance, 2026-09-04 to 2026-11-04.
9. An official is made to say on the record whether the price of Treasury bonds is a policy aim.
Comes from the play
| Plan | Full rules | Reason rule off |
|---|---|---|
| Plan 1 | 0 of 15 | 0 of 15 |
| Plan 2 | 0 of 15 | 0 of 15 |
| Plan 3 | 9 of 15 | 0 of 15 |
In the ledger: An official is forced on the record to address whether the price of Treasuries is a policy objective. Resolves from: FOMC and Treasury press conference transcripts and Congressional testimony, 2026-09-04 to 2026-11-04.
Run two, written 17 September 2026
The same game, the same three plans and the same fifteen dice sequences, started again from the record of 17 September 2026, the day after the Fed’s September meeting. The September rate decision and the September vote are start values in this run, read from the Fed’s statement, so this run makes seven claims and not nine. The claim numbers match run one. Claims 4 and 6 are the ones the record settled.
Every start value the record did not settle keeps the value we authored in run one, and we changed no rule of the game between the two runs. 90 games stand behind these claims. They resolve on the same day as run one.
17 September 2026
Claims written
4 November 2026
Claims resolve
90
Games behind them
1. The Treasury sells fewer long-term bonds at the 4 November refunding.
Follows from the plan
| Plan | Full rules | Reason rule off |
|---|---|---|
| Plan 1 | 0 of 15 | 0 of 15 |
| Plan 2 | 15 of 15 | 15 of 15 |
| Plan 3 | 15 of 15 | 15 of 15 |
In the ledger: Treasury cuts long-end nominal coupon auction sizes at the 4 November quarterly refunding. Resolves from: Quarterly Refunding Statement, 2026-11-04, coupon auction size table.
2. The refunding statement keeps the words "at least the next several quarters".
Comes from the play
| Plan | Full rules | Reason rule off |
|---|---|---|
| Plan 1 | 14 of 15 | 14 of 15 |
| Plan 2 | 0 of 15 | 0 of 15 |
| Plan 3 | 0 of 15 | 0 of 15 |
In the ledger: The refunding statement keeps the "at least the next several quarters" guidance. Resolves from: Quarterly Refunding Statement, 2026-11-04, guidance paragraph, verbatim.
3. The reason the Treasury gives for its decision.
Comes from the play
| Plan | Full rules | Reason rule off |
|---|---|---|
| Plan 1 | liquidity: 14 of 15 · none: 1 of 15 | liquidity: 14 of 15 · none: 1 of 15 |
| Plan 2 | structural demand: 10 of 15 · the yield level: 5 of 15 | structural demand: 11 of 15 · the yield level: 4 of 15 |
| Plan 3 | the yield level: 15 of 15 | the yield level: 15 of 15 |
In the ledger: The reason Treasury gives for the refunding decision. Resolves from: Quarterly Refunding Statement, 2026-11-04, and the Treasury press conference: which of structural demand, the yield level or liquidity support is named.
5. The Fed raises its rate at the October meeting.
Follows from the plan
| Plan | Full rules | Reason rule off |
|---|---|---|
| Plan 1 | 0 of 15 | 0 of 15 |
| Plan 2 | 0 of 15 | 0 of 15 |
| Plan 3 | 0 of 15 | 0 of 15 |
In the ledger: The October FOMC raises the target range. Resolves from: FOMC statement, 2026-10-28, target range paragraph.
7. How many Fed officials vote against the majority in October.
Follows from the plan
| Plan | Full rules | Reason rule off |
|---|---|---|
| Plan 1 | 0 dissents: 15 of 15 | 0 dissents: 15 of 15 |
| Plan 2 | 0 dissents: 15 of 15 | 0 dissents: 15 of 15 |
| Plan 3 | 0 dissents: 15 of 15 | 0 dissents: 15 of 15 |
In the ledger: Dissenting votes recorded at the October FOMC. Resolves from: FOMC statement, 2026-10-28, "Voting against this action were" list.
8. The Treasury draws on its cash account to buy back more of its own bonds.
Follows from the plan
| Plan | Full rules | Reason rule off |
|---|---|---|
| Plan 1 | 0 of 15 | 0 of 15 |
| Plan 2 | 0 of 15 | 0 of 15 |
| Plan 3 | 15 of 15 | 15 of 15 |
In the ledger: Treasury draws the General Account down to fund operations above the floor. Resolves from: Daily Treasury Statement, operating cash balance, 2026-09-04 to 2026-11-04.
9. An official is made to say on the record whether the price of Treasury bonds is a policy aim.
Comes from the play
| Plan | Full rules | Reason rule off |
|---|---|---|
| Plan 1 | 0 of 15 | 0 of 15 |
| Plan 2 | 0 of 15 | 0 of 15 |
| Plan 3 | 9 of 15 | 0 of 15 |
In the ledger: An official is forced on the record to address whether the price of Treasuries is a policy objective. Resolves from: FOMC and Treasury press conference transcripts and Congressional testimony, 2026-09-04 to 2026-11-04.
What we publish when the cycle closes
When the cycle closes we publish on the report what resolved which way, what happened in the real world that no player in the game could have done, and what we changed in the game because of what it got wrong. Until then we mark nothing on this page right or wrong.